Rate Lift-off by Bank Negara Malaysia
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13 May 2022
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BNM Hike Rates as Recovery Gains Momentum

In a surprise move, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25bps to 2.00% on 11 May 2022, the first rate hike since January 2018.

A more positive view on Malaysia’s economic growth outlook as seen in 1Q’2022 industrial production that grew 4.5% y-o-y and a steady fall in unemployment rates indicate a more sustained recovery.

On inflation, BNM's projection for headline inflation is at 2.2%-3.2%, while core inflation is at 2.0%-3.0%. This is more aggressive compared to its view in March, where the central bank expected core inflation to normalise to its long-term average (i.e. below 2%).

We believe global factors such as a more aggressive rate hike cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other global central banks was also a consideration in BNM’s decision.

Lastly, the central bank believes it is also timely to start unwinding its pandemic-related cumulative rate cuts of 125bps. However, it has that guided that policy normalisation will be 'measured and gradual’.

We expect BNM to continue normalising monetary policy in the 2H’2022 with 2 more 25bps rate hikes bringing the OPR to 2.50%; as well as a further 2 rate hikes in 2023 lifting it to 3%.

This is of course subject to recovery momentum continuing as downside risks to growth remain. These include the continued Russia-Ukraine military conflict as well the strict COVID containment measures in China that could worsen commodity price shocks and supply chain disruptions.

MGS yields saw a knee-jerk response to the unexpected news by moving 3-15 bps higher post-OPR hike decision with shorter tenures moving the most on thin trading liquidity seen. Meanwhile, corporate bond yields were less impacted and remained steady.

In the near-term, we expect investors to remain on the side-lines while waiting for catalyst amid heightened external driven volatility and poor local sentiment stemming from concerns over the EPF withdrawal scheme which saw local bond yields moving higher by 80-100bps on a YTD basis. We believe at this level, the bond market has already priced in 4-5 further rate hikes.

Portfolio Positioning

Our Fixed Income portfolios including Affin Hwang Bond Fund and Aiiman Income Plus Fund have shifted to a more defensive positioning over the past few months. We have reduced the portfolio duration and increased the cash level to 10%-12%.

Although, the risk-reward dynamic has actually turned attractive, we are still mindful of volatile UST, potential foreign outflows and a high government bond supply in the near-term.

Disclaimer
This article has been prepared by Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad (hereinafter referred to as “Affin Hwang AM”) specific for its use, a specific target audience, and for discussion purposes only. All information contained within this presentation belongs to Affin Hwang AM and may not be copied, distributed or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without written consent of Affin Hwang AM.

The information contained in this presentation may include, but is not limited to opinions, analysis, forecasts, projections and expectations (collectively referred to as “Opinions”). Such information has been obtained from various sources including those in the public domain, are merely expressions of belief. Although this presentation has been prepared on the basis of information and/or Opinions that are believed to be correct at the time the presentation was prepared, Affin Hwang AM makes no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of any such information and/or Opinions.

As with any forms of financial products, the financial product mentioned herein (if any) carries with it various risks. Although attempts have been made to disclose all possible risks involved, the financial product may still be subject to inherent risk that may arise beyond our reasonable contemplation. The financial product may be wholly unsuited for you, if you are adverse to the risk arising out of and/or in connection with the financial product.

Affin Hwang AM is not acting as an advisor or agent to any person to whom this presentation is directed. Such persons must make their own independent assessments of the contents of this presentation, should not treat such content as advice relating to legal, accounting, taxation or investment matters and should consult their own advisers.

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TENG CHEE WAI

Managing Director
Teng Chee Wai is the founder of Affin Hwang Asset Management Berhad (Affin Hwang AM). Over the past decade, he has built the Company to be the fastest growing and only independent investment management house in Malaysia’s top three, with an excess of RM47 billion in assets under management as at 31 December 2018.​

​In his capacity as Managing Director / Executive Director, Teng manages the overall business and strategic direction as well as the management of the investment team. His hands-on approach sees him actively involved in investments, product development and marketing. Teng’s critical leadership and regular participation in reviewing and assessing strategies and performance has been pivotal in allowing the Company to successfully navigate the economically turbulent decade.

Teng’s investment management experience spans more than 20 years, and his key area of expertise is in managing absolute return mandates for insurance assets and investment-linked funds in both Singapore and Malaysia. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Assistant General Manager (Investment) of Overseas Assurance Corporation (OAC) and was responsible for the investment function of the Group Overseas Assurance Corporation Ltd.​

​Teng began his career in the financial industry as an Investment Manager with NTUC Income, Singapore. He is a Bachelor of Science graduate from the National University of Singapore and has a Post-Graduate Diploma in Actuarial Studies from City University in London.
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